Theory of the Case: Mueller, Trump, Etc.
THEORY OF THE CASE TIME. A lot of this is confirmed and a decent amount is conjecture because that’s frankly how case theory works.
The most important thing to note with regard to Bob Mueller’s investigation is that it’s proceeding on two parallel tracks that we know of. The first track is attempted collusion — why Manafort joined the campaign, his shady dealing with Putin and Oleg, etc. Even though the charges filed today don’t specifically reference Trump or Putin, they lay a decent groundwork for the eventual idea that Manafort’s job was primarily as a go-between for Putin (via his cutout Oleg) and the campaign. The charges they got him on are big and they’re bad and there are a LOT of them. All of this incentivizes Manafort to potentially flip. It’s increasingly looking like around March, Putin reached out to Trump through a variety of avenues. In late March, Manafort joined the campaign. A month later was the infamous Mayflower Hotel meeting where Sergei Kislyak, Russia’s spymaster, started popping up. Then on June 9, 2016 was the now-legendary Trump Tower meeting (more on that in a second). This meeting was ostensibly about the Magnitsky Act, but they took it under the VERY SPECIFIC PRETENSE that the Russians had dirt on Hillary Clinton. A day after this meeting, Trump publicly asked Russia to find Hillary’s deleted emails. If Russia gave Trump kompromat on Clinton, THAT IS ILLEGAL. While collusion itself isn’t a term of art legally, receiving an in-kind contribution from a foreign government is absolutely a violation of campaign finance laws. This is PART ONE of the Mueller investigation.
PART TWO of the Mueller investigation APPEARS TO BE related to Obstruction of Justice. We know for a fact that Trump repeatedly met with Comey and asked for a loyalty pledge. We know Trump fired Comey because — HIS WORD — “of the Russia thing.” All of this is obstruction of justice, full-stop, but the stuff coming out today is way worse than what we knew previously. That’s because of my dude George Papadopolous, the dumbfuck Model UN guy who worked for Trump. He appears to be the item that connects path one directly to path two, which is VERY bad news for all parties involved.
Here’s what we know about George P. He was solicited by a professor claiming to be acting on the orders of Putin via AN UNNAMED WOMAN. This professor met with George P in Moscow in March of 2016, literally two weeks before Manafort was hired. This unnamed woman promised to give Trump’s campaign HILLARY CLINTON’S EMAILS. You know, the ones HE ASKED THEM FOR ON FUCKING TELEVISION. Also, the person who reached out to Dumbshit Junior — Rob Goldstone — said he had a female contact with the Kremlin who had dirt on Hillary Clinton. Is it possible that George P was soliciting the SAME info from the same woman, Natalia (Russian last name)? It’s almost guaranteed. Further, the Pap plea deal makes references to higher-ups with the Trump campaign saying that Trump himself would NOT take a trip to Moscow. But the meeting didn’t happen in Moscow, it happened in Trump Tower. Assuming it’s the same meeting with the same Russian woman.
What Mueller has been zeroing in on for months is two things: was Trump in the meeting on June 9, 2016? And: what did the Russians actually give Manafort/J-Kush/Dumbfuck Junior? If you believe the final version of the story from Junior, the Russians didn’t actually have the Clinton kompromat that was promised. HERE’S WHERE THE STEELE DOSSIER COMES IN. According to the Steele dossier, the Russians didn’t have kompromat on CLINTON; they had it ON TRUMP. So PRESUMABLY the Russians COULD HAVE lured them into the meeting under false pretenses before giving them the TRUMP kompromat. A month after this meeting took place, the official GOP platform was amended to be far more favorable to Putin and his cronies in Ukraine. This is a pretty obvious quo for an as-yet-unidentified quid.
BUT HERE’S THE FUN PART. It doesn’t MATTER if Trump was in that meeting. Because all the indictments stemming from the June 9 meeting still only represent ONE TRACK of Mueller’s investigation. What Papadopolous plead out for is LYING TO THE FBI. He lied to the FBI, per Matthew Miller, on January 27. Jan 27 is the date that Trump met with Comey and asked for a loyalty pledge. So you now have a Trump campaign aide that was soliciting info from the Russians (that they appeared to meet with Manafort/Kush/Junior about later), lying to the FBI about his contact with Russia, which he presumably wouldn’t do if it had all been above-board and cleanly handled. So he gets interviewed by the FBI and Trump asks Comey for loyalty to make the investigation go away. When Comey declines, Trump fires him under the shittiest of false pretenses. Whether Trump attended the meeting or not, he appears to be protecting the people who DID attend the meeting, to a shockingly criminal degree.
It’s not the crime, it’s the cover-up. Except in this case it might also be the crime. Papadopolous took a deal. J-Kush and Junior won’t be so lucky. The fact that the Russian woman is unnamed in Pap’s plea deal makes me almost positive it’s Natalia Whatever.
This whole thing is going to unravel in a hurry, and whether or not Trump actively colluded, he’s going to be on the hook for Obstruction of Justice. A LOT of times. Whatever Don McGahn had in his magic safe is probably just a big ole file of “Ways the President asked me to obstruct justice and I had to tell him no.” The MOST speculative thing I’ll say is that the timing can’t be a coincidence. If Papadopolous lied to the FBI ON THE DAY that Trump had dinner with Comey (a dinner proposed earlier that day, mind you), my guess is that George P, Model UN Representative, came to Trump and said “uh hey so the FBI is interviewing me about Natalia…thoughts?” and Trump was, in typical dumbass fashion, like “just lie to them, I’ll have Jim Comey make it go away.”
POP ALL OF YOUR REMAINING POPCORN, WE’RE ABOUT TO WATCH A PRESIDENCY CRUMBLE.